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Basketball · Oct to Jun

Usage-aware basketball projections

Basketball production follows opportunity. Minutes, usage and role decide who touches the ball and when, and those inputs move nightly with rest, matchups and injuries. Benchlytics builds every projection around that reality.

When a rotation opens up, the players absorbing those minutes see it reflected in their numbers, so you're deciding on tonight's picture, not yesterday's.

What we cover

  • All positions across the league
  • Points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks and threes
  • Minutes and usage as the backbone of every projection

What we model

  • Minutes and usage, adjusted for role
  • Rest and back-to-back scheduling
  • Pace and game environment
  • Injuries and the opportunity they redistribute
NBA · sample projectionsIllustrative data
Nikola JokicDEN · C60.0
Luka DoncicLAL · G59.7
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL · F58.4
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC · G57.0
Jayson TatumBOS · F55.0
Joel EmbiidPHI · C54.0
Anthony EdwardsMIN · G53.6
Stephen CurryGSW · G52.3
Kevin DurantPHX · F53.0
LeBron JamesLAL · F50.3
Victor WembanyamaSAS · C49.0
Devin BookerPHX · G50.0
Jalen BrunsonNYK · G48.0
Donovan MitchellCLE · G46.3
Tyrese HaliburtonIND · G46.0
Ja MorantMEM · G46.0
Anthony DavisLAL · F43.3
Kawhi LeonardLAC · F43.7
Jimmy ButlerMIA · F42.0
Domantas SabonisSAC · C42.0
De'Aaron FoxSAC · G41.0
Paolo BancheroORL · F38.3
Cade CunninghamDET · G37.3
Trae YoungATL · G37.0
Damian LillardMIL · G35.3
Jaylen BrownBOS · G35.4
Bam AdebayoMIA · C33.3
Tyrese MaxeyPHI · G33.7
Alperen SengunHOU · C32.0
Franz WagnerORL · F29.9

NBA questions

Do you account for back-to-backs and load management?

Yes. Scheduling and rest are meaningful inputs, and projections respond to reported rest and availability news.

How quickly do projections react to injury news?

Projections are news-aware, when a player is ruled out, the teammates likely to absorb usage are reflected quickly.

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